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Mild winter has Cambridge residents excited, climate experts concerned

Milder winter temperatures had Cambridge residents out and about earlier this week, but with the warmth comes serious implications for the future of our climate

With mid February feeling more like the beginning of spring, Cambridge residents were out and about enjoying the sun and warmth earlier this week.

But what does this trend say about the future of Canadian winters? 

Climate experts from the University of Waterloo's Climate Institute are saying this break from the ice and snow is a preview of what winter will look like in a matter of a few decades. 

"The winter we're seeing now is our future," said Dr. Daniel Scott, geography and environmental management professor at the University of Waterloo. "When we get warm blasts like this that are particularly unusual, it gives us sort of a fast forward to what we, our kids or grandkids might see more often."

Wednesday's local high of 13 C shattered the previous record for Feb. 15 and it followed two days of sun and highs around 8 C.

Currently, the average temperature for Feb. is -2 C and data from the Climate institute is predicting that by 2040, the shortest month of the year will have an average temperature just above freezing. 

As winters change, there will be a mix of freezing and thawing periods. There could be times where the weather fluctuates from unusually warm for the season, to extremely cold, noted Scott. 

Despite this week's release from the cold clutches of winter. the Weather Network is calling for temperatures to dip to a low of -15 C over the next week. The forecast also predicts about 10 cm of snow will fall during this time. 

This change in the climate will have a significant impact on industries that depend on the cold winters Cambridge and Waterloo region residents are used to.

If there is no snow and above freezing temperatures, businesses like Chicopee Ski Club, backyard skating rinks and other winter related activities will start to disappear. 

Residents of Cambridge have already started to experience this absence of winter fun amidst one of the mildest winters on record. 

"I had a cross-country skiing trip planned, but we had to cancel it because there was no snow," said a disappointed Sandy Ward. "I'm Canadian, so I would actually prefer more winter but to be honest, I'm loving this." 

The Grand River Conservation Authority oversees the Shade's Mills Conservation Area and had to cancel multiple cross-country skiing events this year. 

"The warmer weather and limited snowfall has had an impact on winter activities," said Cam Linwood, communications for GRCA. "Facilities that offer cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, and/or ice fishing were only able to open for approximately one week during recent snowfall events."

Skiing, snowboarding and winter fun isn't the only thing being impacted by the increasingly warm weather, the lack of snow-pack has affected the amount of water that can be retained in reservoirs used by the GRCA to help manage river flows during melt or rain events. 

"It makes it definitely harder to plan for flood control when we get these sort of mid season melts," said Scott. "There have already been flood warnings earlier this year and that will happen again with more rain, some low lying areas will keep flooding."

All of this information is not news to climate scientists who have been predicting these outcomes for decades.

Scott said there are two different futures in front of us, but it is up to the international community which one will be chosen. 

"We have a low emission future where if the world can come together and actually achieve what they've set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. There will be additional warming of about two degrees in winter around this region, but we'll still be able to recognize Southern Ontario," he added. 

Under a high emissions future, it is a substantially different winter in this region. The amount of warming will be almost double, changing the way we experience winter, Scott said. 

When asked which direction he and the Climate Institute think humanity will take, he said it will land somewhere in the middle. 

"There's some good news and some bad news," said Scott. "The good news is the worst case scenario, is kinda ruled out."

With most countries and industries poising themselves to reduce carbon emissions and pollution, the goals set out by the Paris agreement are one step closer to reaching those goals.

The bad news is the damage that has already been done has moved us past the point of reversing certain aspects of climate change, added Scott. 

"Both here in Canada and in every other part of the world we will have to adapt to that slightly different climate.

"There will be more droughts, wildfires and other severe weather events. These are some of the things we won't be able to change." 

Despite all of the negative side affects of climate change, residents in Cambridge are still trying to find the bright spots in an otherwise dark situation. 

"You know, I am happy I can get out and walk the dog without her freezing," said Brian Godbout. "Unfortunately, there are many things that we couldn't do this year because of the milder winter and all of the impacts on the environment, but we always have to be thankful for the sunny days." 


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Joe McGinty

About the Author: Joe McGinty

Joe McGinty is a multimedia journalist who covers local news in the Cambridge area. He is a graduate of Conestoga College and began his career as a freelance journalist at CambridgeToday before joining full time.
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