Cambridge council learned that bringing GO Transit passenger rail service to Cambridge is at least six years from becoming reality, and only if there are no bumps in the road between now and the end of the decade.
Staff will present its initial business case for a Cambridge to Guelph GO line to regional council this fall, but took time Tuesday to update Cambridge council on its progress following two public information sessions earlier this spring.
Staff is still processing feedback from those sessions and an online public survey.
The Region of Waterloo has been working with the city on a feasibility study and concept to bring GO passenger rail service to Guelph's Central Station since 2018 and proposes using a CN freight line through Hespeler to provide an indirect link for passengers to get to Toronto's Union Station.
Prior to that, the city explored the idea of connecting south Cambridge to the Milton GO line, but those discussions fizzled in 2014 over capacity issues along the track.
CN, which owns the Fergus Subdivision line through Hespeler, is a more willing partner than Canadian Pacific, which owns the Milton line.
If adopted, a connection between Cambridge and Guelph would become the second indirect route in GO's rail system, which mainly operates direct lines between a terminus and Union Station. The Niagara GO line connects to the Lakeshore line east of Hamilton.
The estimated cost of bringing the service to Cambridge ranges from $370 million at the low end to $540 million at the high end.
That option would see up to two trains an hour leaving a Pinebush Road station at an average trip speed of 71 km/hr. It would reach Guelph in about 15 minutes. Passengers could then hop on a train headed to Toronto.
The total trip time between Cambridge and Union Station would be about 87 minutes, which is considered in line with the average drive time.
The region's goal is to see a train leave the Cambridge station every 30 to 60 minutes.
The economic benefit of bringing passenger rail service to Cambridge is estimated at $560 million.
A "very conservative" estimate of annual revenue generated from the service is $150 million, equal to annual operating and maintenance costs.
The GO train would be integrated at a planned Pinebush ION LRT station on Hespeler Road south of Eagle Street where the region says it would support the city's Hespeler Road Corridor Draft Secondary Plan.
That planning document proposes high-density residential intensification along the Hespeler Road corridor with transit and cycling connections.
Project manager Oriana Aguas told council the region wants to leverage those plans with "higher order transit" options.
The region is also leveraging Metrolinx's recent investment in a second platform at Guelph Central Station by making sure the proposed service could be integrated with that investment.
"It could be a model for incremental regional rail projects in the future," she said.
Asked for an approximate timeline for the initial business case moving forward, Aguas said it will depend on Metrolinx's buy in.
"If everything goes perfect, all of those processes...current IBC to construction would be about six years," she said.
"But that's if everything goes perfect and Metrolinx partners with the region to do this work."
The timeline would put the request in line with the region's business case for Stage 2 LRT, which will ask the provincial and federal governments to support the estimated $4.5 billion cost to bring the ION to Downtown Cambridge.
Regional councillor Doug Craig told CambridgeToday earlier this year that he'd much rather see GO service roll into Cambridge than he would the ION.
In terms of financial viability, "GO is obviously the priority here."
"Who the hell is going to give Cambridge $4.5 billion for light rail transit?"
In addition to that funding request, the region will seek funding to build a transit hub at King and Victoria streets to accommodate connections to the GO Train, VIA and the LRT.
Also relevant to note is the promised construction of a new four-lane Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph.
After three decades of studies and delays, that Ontario Ministry of Transportation project appears to be inching closer to reality with replacement of the Frederick Street overpass in Kitchener slated to begin construction this year.
